Question

A market research firms conducts studies regarding the success of new products. The company is not always perfect in predicting the success. Suppose that there is a 50% chance that any new product would be successful (and a 50% chance that it would fail). In the past, for all new products that ultimately were successful, 80% were predicted to be successful (and the other 20% were inaccurately predicted to be failures). Also, for all new products that were ultimately failures, 70% were predicted to be failures (and the other 30% were inaccurately predicted to be successes). For any randomly selected new product, what is the probability that the market research firm would predict that it would be a success?
a) 0.80
b) 0.50
c) 0.45
d) 0.55
e) 0.95

Answer

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