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Question

Analysis of data for an autoregressive forecasting model produced the following tables.

 Coefficients Standard Error t Statistic p-value
Intercept 3.85094 3.745787 0.84426 0.34299
yt-1 0.70434 0.082849 -1.66023 0.103822
yt-2 -0.62669 0.035709 14.65044 6.69E-19


df SS MS F p-value
Regression 2 135753.5 67876.76 107.3336 1.91E-17
Residual 43 27192.79 632.3904

Total 45 162946.3



The actual values of this time series, y, were 228, 54, and 191 for May, June, and July, respectively. The predicted (forecast) value for August is __________.
a) -101.00
b) 104.54
c) 218.71
d) 21.56
e) -77.81

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