Question

  • Projected Year 1 NOI: $100,000.
  • Projected Year 11 NOI: $121,899.
  • Projected Year 10 resale (reversion) value: $1,523,738.
  • Current (going-in) market cap rate for similar properties: 7%.
Which of the following should be true about the ex ante micro-level performance attribution (IRR parsing components) of this property investment?
(a) The overall IRR will likely be negative due to a very large negative yield-change (YC) component.
(b) The overall IRR will likely be positive due to positive components in all three performance attributes (IY, CFC, & YC).
(c) The overall IRR will likely be negative, but at least the yield-change (YC) component will be positive.
(d) The overall IRR will likely be positive due largely to the initial yield component (IY), but the yield-change (YC) component will be negative.
(e) None of the above.

Answer

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