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Question
Titus and Lauren are playing a coin-tossing game where each player tosses a fair coin 20 times consecutively. The winner of the game is the player who tosses the most consecutive tails. Titus decides to go first and tosses tails five times in a row. Their parents, Margaret and Remi, are observing the game and make the following observations before Titus attempts the sixth toss:
Margaret: The probability of Titus tossing tails has to be greater than 75 percent because he is on a roll!
Remi: No, Margaret, the probability of Titus tossing tails has to be less than 25 percent because he hasnt tossed heads in the last five tosses and he is due to toss heads!
A behavioral economist would conclude that Margarets statement is an example of the ________ fallacy, and Remis statement is an example of the ________ fallacy.
a. continuum; hot-hand
b. hot-hand; broken-window
c. gamblers; hot-hand
d. hot-hand; gamblers
e. behavior; broken-window
Answer
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