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Q:
Consider the following decision scenario: If you are uncertain which state of nature will occur, and use the minimax regret criterion, which alternative will you select?
Q:
Consider the following decision scenario: If somehow you find out for certain that state of nature 4 is going to occur, which alternative will you select?
Q:
Which of the following would make decision trees an especially attractive decision-making tool?
A. The need to think through a possible sequence of decisions.
B. The need to maximize the expected value of perfect information.
C. The need to minimize expected regret.
D. The need to avoid suboptimization.
E. The need to minimize costs.
Q:
Option A has a payoff of $10,000 in environment 1 and $20,000 in environment 2. Option B has a payoff of $12,500 in environment 1 and $17,500 in environment 2. Once the probability of environment 2 exceeds ______, option A becomes the better choice.
A. .33
B. .67
C. .45
D. .50
E. .55
Q:
Option A has a payoff of $10,000 in environment 1 and $20,000 in environment 2. Option B has a payoff of $5,000 in environment 1 and $27,500 in environment 2. Once the probability of environment 1 exceeds ______, option A becomes the better choice.
A. .40
B. .45
C. .50
D. .57
E. .60
Q:
Which of the following is not a stage in the decision-making process?
A. Select the best alternative.
B. Develop suitable alternatives.
C. Analyze and compare alternatives.
D. Monitor the competition.
E. Specify objectives.
Q:
When a decision-making scenario involves two or more departments, if the individual departments pursue what is optimal for them, sometimes the overall organization suffers. This is an example of:
A. subminimization.
B. suboptimization.
C. rational boundaries.
D. decision making under risk.
E. decision making under uncertainty.
Q:
Two professors at a nearby university want to coauthor a new textbook in either economics or statistics. They feel that if they write an economics book, they have a 50 percent chance of placing it with a major publisher, and it should ultimately sell about 40,000 copies. If they cannot get a major publisher to take it, then they feel they have an 80 percent chance of placing it with a smaller publisher, with ultimate sales of 30,000 copies. On the other hand, if they write a statistics book, they feel they have a 40 percent chance of placing it with a major publisher, and it should result in ultimate sales of about 50,000 copies. If they cannot get a major publisher to take it, they feel they have a 50 percent chance of placing it with a smaller publisher, with ultimate sales of 35,000 copies. What is the expected value for the optimum decision alternative?
A. 50,000 copies
B. 40,000 copies
C. 32,000 copies
D. 30,500 copies
E. 10,500 copies
Q:
Two professors at a nearby university want to coauthor a new textbook in either economics or statistics. They feel that if they write an economics book, they have a 50 percent chance of placing it with a major publisher, and it should ultimately sell about 40,000 copies. If they cannot get a major publisher to take it, then they feel they have an 80 percent chance of placing it with a smaller publisher, with ultimate sales of 30,000 copies. On the other hand, if they write a statistics book, they feel they have a 40 percent chance of placing it with a major publisher, and it should result in ultimate sales of about 50,000 copies. If they cannot get a major publisher to take it, they feel they have a 50 percent chance of placing it with a smaller publisher, with ultimate sales of 35,000 copies. What is the expected value for the decision alternative to write the statistics book?
A. 50,000 copies
B. 40,000 copies
C. 32,000 copies
D. 30,500 copies
E. 10,500 copies
Q:
Two professors at a nearby university want to coauthor a new textbook in either economics or statistics. They feel that if they write an economics book, they have a 50 percent chance of placing it with a major publisher, and it should ultimately sell about 40,000 copies. If they cannot get a major publisher to take it, then they feel they have an 80 percent chance of placing it with a smaller publisher, with ultimate sales of 30,000 copies. On the other hand, if they write a statistics book, they feel they have a 40 percent chance of placing it with a major publisher, and it should result in ultimate sales of about 50,000 copies. If they cannot get a major publisher to take it, they feel they have a 50 percent chance of placing it with a smaller publisher, with ultimate sales of 35,000 copies. What is the expected value for the decision alternative to write the economics book?
A. 50,000 copies
B. 40,000 copies
C. 32,000 copies
D. 30,500 copies
E. 10,500 copies
Q:
Two professors at a nearby university want to coauthor a new textbook in either economics or statistics. They feel that if they write an economics book, they have a 50 percent chance of placing it with a major publisher, and it should ultimately sell about 40,000 copies. If they cannot get a major publisher to take it, then they feel they have an 80 percent chance of placing it with a smaller publisher, with ultimate sales of 30,000 copies. On the other hand, if they write a statistics book, they feel they have a 40 percent chance of placing it with a major publisher, and it should result in ultimate sales of about 50,000 copies. If they cannot get a major publisher to take it, they feel they have a 50 percent chance of placing it with a smaller publisher, with ultimate sales of 35,000 copies. What is the probability that the statistics book would wind up being placed with a smaller publisher?
A. .6
B. .5
C. .4
D. .3
E. 0
Q:
Two professors at a nearby university want to coauthor a new textbook in either economics or statistics. They feel that if they write an economics book, they have a 50 percent chance of placing it with a major publisher, and it should ultimately sell about 40,000 copies. If they cannot get a major publisher to take it, then they feel they have an 80 percent chance of placing it with a smaller publisher, with ultimate sales of 30,000 copies. On the other hand, if they write a statistics book, they feel they have a 40 percent chance of placing it with a major publisher, and it should result in ultimate sales of about 50,000 copies. If they cannot get a major publisher to take it, they feel they have a 50 percent chance of placing it with a smaller publisher, with ultimate sales of 35,000 copies. What is the probability that the economics book would wind up being placed with a smaller publisher?
A. .8
B. .5
C. .4
D. .2
E. .1
Q:
One local hospital has just enough space and funds currently available to start either a cancer or heart research lab. If administration decides on the cancer lab, there is a 20 percent chance of getting $100,000 in outside funding from the American Cancer Society next year, and an 80 percent chance of getting nothing. If the cancer research lab is funded the first year, no additional outside funding will be available the second year. However, if it is not funded the first year, then management estimates the chances are 50 percent it will get $100,000 the following year, and 50 percent that it will get nothing again. If, however, the hospital's management decides to go with the heart lab, then there is a 50 percent chance of getting $50,000 in outside funding from the American Heart Association the first year and a 50 percent change of getting nothing. If the heart lab is funded the first year, management estimates a 40 percent chance of getting another $50,000 and a 60 percent chance of getting nothing additional the second year. If it is not funded the first year, then management estimates a 60 percent chance for getting $50,000 and a 40 percent chance for getting nothing in the following year. For both the cancer and heart research labs, no further possible funding is anticipated beyond the first two years. What is the expected value for the optimum decision alternative?
A. $100,000
B. $60,000
C. $50,000
D. $40,000
E. $20,000
Q:
One local hospital has just enough space and funds currently available to start either a cancer or heart research lab. If administration decides on the cancer lab, there is a 20 percent chance of getting $100,000 in outside funding from the American Cancer Society next year, and an 80 percent chance of getting nothing. If the cancer research lab is funded the first year, no additional outside funding will be available the second year. However, if it is not funded the first year, then management estimates the chances are 50 percent it will get $100,000 the following year, and 50 percent that it will get nothing again. If, however, the hospital's management decides to go with the heart lab, then there is a 50 percent chance of getting $50,000 in outside funding from the American Heart Association the first year and a 50 percent change of getting nothing. If the heart lab is funded the first year, management estimates a 40 percent chance of getting another $50,000 and a 60 percent chance of getting nothing additional the second year. If it is not funded the first year, then management estimates a 60 percent chance for getting $50,000 and a 40 percent chance for getting nothing in the following year. For both the cancer and heart research labs, no further possible funding is anticipated beyond the first two years. What is the expected value for the decision alternative to select the heart lab?
A. $100,000
B. $60,000
C. $50,000
D. $40,000
E. $20,000
Q:
One local hospital has just enough space and funds currently available to start either a cancer or heart research lab. If administration decides on the cancer lab, there is a 20 percent chance of getting $100,000 in outside funding from the American Cancer Society next year, and an 80 percent chance of getting nothing. If the cancer research lab is funded the first year, no additional outside funding will be available the second year. However, if it is not funded the first year, then management estimates the chances are 50 percent it will get $100,000 the following year, and 50 percent that it will get nothing again. If, however, the hospital's management decides to go with the heart lab, then there is a 50 percent chance of getting $50,000 in outside funding from the American Heart Association the first year and a 50 percent change of getting nothing. If the heart lab is funded the first year, management estimates a 40 percent chance of getting another $50,000 and a 60 percent chance of getting nothing additional the second year. If it is not funded the first year, then management estimates a 60 percent chance for getting $50,000 and a 40 percent chance for getting nothing in the following year. For both the cancer and heart research labs, no further possible funding is anticipated beyond the first two years. What is the expected value for the decision alternative to select the cancer lab?
A. $100,000
B. $60,000
C. $50,000
D. $40,000
E. $20,000
Q:
One local hospital has just enough space and funds currently available to start either a cancer or heart research lab. If administration decides on the cancer lab, there is a 20 percent chance of getting $100,000 in outside funding from the American Cancer Society next year, and an 80 percent chance of getting nothing. If the cancer research lab is funded the first year, no additional outside funding will be available the second year. However, if it is not funded the first year, then management estimates the chances are 50 percent it will get $100,000 the following year, and 50 percent that it will get nothing again. If, however, the hospital's management decides to go with the heart lab, then there is a 50 percent chance of getting $50,000 in outside funding from the American Heart Association the first year and a 50 percent change of getting nothing. If the heart lab is funded the first year, management estimates a 40 percent chance of getting another $50,000 and a 60 percent chance of getting nothing additional the second year. If it is not funded the first year, then management estimates a 60 percent chance for getting $50,000 and a 40 percent chance for getting nothing in the following year. For both the cancer and heart research labs, no further possible funding is anticipated beyond the first two years. What is the probability that the heart lab will be funded in both the first and second years?
A. .4
B. .3
C. .2
D. .1
E. 0
Q:
One local hospital has just enough space and funds currently available to start either a cancer or heart research lab. If administration decides on the cancer lab, there is a 20 percent chance of getting $100,000 in outside funding from the American Cancer Society next year, and an 80 percent chance of getting nothing. If the cancer research lab is funded the first year, no additional outside funding will be available the second year. However, if it is not funded the first year, then management estimates the chances are 50 percent it will get $100,000 the following year, and 50 percent that it will get nothing again. If, however, the hospital's management decides to go with the heart lab, then there is a 50 percent chance of getting $50,000 in outside funding from the American Heart Association the first year and a 50 percent change of getting nothing. If the heart lab is funded the first year, management estimates a 40 percent chance of getting another $50,000 and a 60 percent chance of getting nothing additional the second year. If it is not funded the first year, then management estimates a 60 percent chance for getting $50,000 and a 40 percent chance for getting nothing in the following year. For both the cancer and heart research labs, no further possible funding is anticipated beyond the first two years. What would be the total payoff if the heart lab were funded in both the first and second years?
A. $100,000
B. $60,000
C. $50,000
D. $40,000
E. $20,000
Q:
The head of operations for a movie studio wants to determine which of two new scripts they should select for their next major production. (Due to budgeting constraints, only one new picture can be undertaken at this time.) She feels that script 1 has a 70 percent chance of earning about $10,000,000 over the long run, but a 30 percent chance of losing $2,000,000. If this movie is successful, then a sequel could also be produced, with an 80 percent chance of earning $5,000,000, but a 20 percent chance of losing $1,000,000. On the other hand, she feels that script 2 has a 60 percent chance of earning $12,000,000, but a 40 percent chance of losing $3,000,000. If successful, its sequel would have a 50 percent chance of earning $8,000,000, but a 50 percent chance of losing $4,000,000. Of course, in either case, if the original movie were a flop, then no sequel would be produced. What is the expected value for the optimum decision alternative?
A. $15,000,000
B. $9,060,000
C. $8,400,000
D. $7,200,000
E. $6,000,000
Q:
The head of operations for a movie studio wants to determine which of two new scripts they should select for their next major production. (Due to budgeting constraints, only one new picture can be undertaken at this time.) She feels that script 1 has a 70 percent chance of earning about $10,000,000 over the long run, but a 30 percent chance of losing $2,000,000. If this movie is successful, then a sequel could also be produced, with an 80 percent chance of earning $5,000,000, but a 20 percent chance of losing $1,000,000. On the other hand, she feels that script 2 has a 60 percent chance of earning $12,000,000, but a 40 percent chance of losing $3,000,000. If successful, its sequel would have a 50 percent chance of earning $8,000,000, but a 50 percent chance of losing $4,000,000. Of course, in either case, if the original movie were a flop, then no sequel would be produced. What is the expected value of selecting script 2?
A. $15,000,000
B. $9,060,000
C. $8,400,000
D. $7,200,000
E. $6,000,000
Q:
The head of operations for a movie studio wants to determine which of two new scripts they should select for their next major production. (Due to budgeting constraints, only one new picture can be undertaken at this time.) She feels that script 1 has a 70 percent chance of earning about $10,000,000 over the long run, but a 30 percent chance of losing $2,000,000. If this movie is successful, then a sequel could also be produced, with an 80 percent chance of earning $5,000,000, but a 20 percent chance of losing $1,000,000. On the other hand, she feels that script 2 has a 60 percent chance of earning $12,000,000, but a 40 percent chance of losing $3,000,000. If successful, its sequel would have a 50 percent chance of earning $8,000,000, but a 50 percent chance of losing $4,000,000. Of course, in either case, if the original movie were a flop, then no sequel would be produced. What is the expected value of selecting script 1?
A. $15,000,000
B. $9,060,000
C. $8,400,000
D. $7,200,000
E. $6,000,000
Q:
The head of operations for a movie studio wants to determine which of two new scripts they should select for their next major production. (Due to budgeting constraints, only one new picture can be undertaken at this time.) She feels that script 1 has a 70 percent chance of earning about $10,000,000 over the long run, but a 30 percent chance of losing $2,000,000. If this movie is successful, then a sequel could also be produced, with an 80 percent chance of earning $5,000,000, but a 20 percent chance of losing $1,000,000. On the other hand, she feels that script 2 has a 60 percent chance of earning $12,000,000, but a 40 percent chance of losing $3,000,000. If successful, its sequel would have a 50 percent chance of earning $8,000,000, but a 50 percent chance of losing $4,000,000. Of course, in either case, if the original movie were a flop, then no sequel would be produced. What is the probability that script 1 will be a success, but its sequel will not?
A. .8
B. .7
C. .56
D. .2
E. .14
Q:
The head of operations for a movie studio wants to determine which of two new scripts they should select for their next major production. (Due to budgeting constraints, only one new picture can be undertaken at this time.) She feels that script 1 has a 70 percent chance of earning about $10,000,000 over the long run, but a 30 percent chance of losing $2,000,000. If this movie is successful, then a sequel could also be produced, with an 80 percent chance of earning $5,000,000, but a 20 percent chance of losing $1,000,000. On the other hand, she feels that script 2 has a 60 percent chance of earning $12,000,000, but a 40 percent chance of losing $3,000,000. If successful, its sequel would have a 50 percent chance of earning $8,000,000, but a 50 percent chance of losing $4,000,000. Of course, in either case, if the original movie were a flop, then no sequel would be produced. What would be the total payoff if script 1 were a success, but its sequel were not?
A. $15,000,000
B. $10,000,000
C. $9,000,000
D. $5,000,000
E. $-1,000,000
Q:
The advertising manager for Roadside Restaurants, Inc., needs to decide whether to spend this month's budget for advertising on print media, television, or a mixture of the two. She estimates that the cost per thousand "hits" (readers or viewers) will vary depending upon the success of the new cable television network she plans to use, as follows: For what range of probability that the new cable network will be successful will she select the television media strategy? A. 0-.4 B. 0-.55 C. .4-.7 D. .55-1 E. .7-1
Q:
The owner of Tastee Cookies needs to decide whether to lease a small, medium, or large new retail outlet. She estimates that monthly profits will vary with demand for her cookies as follows: For what range of probability that demand will be high, will she decide to lease the large facility? A. 0-.25 B. 0-.33 C. .25-.5 D. .33-1 E. .5-1
Q:
The construction manager for Acme Construction, Inc., must decide whether to build single-family homes, apartments, or condominiums. He estimates annual profits (in $000) will vary with the population trend as follows: If he feels the chances of declining, stable, and growing population trends are 40 percent, 50 percent, and 10 percent, respectively, what is his expected value of perfect information? A. $187,000 B. $132,000 C. $123,000 D. $65,000 E. $55,000
Q:
The local operations manager for the Internal Revenue Service must decide whether to hire one, two, or three temporary tax examiners for the upcoming tax season. She estimates that net revenues (in thousands of dollars) will vary with how well taxpayers comply with the new tax code just passed by Congress, as follows: If she feels the chances of low, medium, and high compliance are 20 percent, 30 percent, and 50 percent respectively, what is her expected value of perfect information? A. $16,000 B. $26,000 C. $46,000 D. $48,000 E. $50,000
Q:
The operations manager for a well-drilling company must recommend whether to build a new facility, expand his existing one, or do nothing. He estimates that long-run profits (in $000) will vary with the amount of precipitation (rainfall) as follows: If he feels the chances of low, normal, and high precipitation are 30 percent, 20 percent, and 50 percent respectively, what is his expected value of perfect information? A. $140,000 B. $170,000 C. $285,000 D. $305,000 E. $475,000
Q:
The operations manager for a local bus company wants to decide whether he should purchase a small, medium, or large new bus for his company. He estimates that the annual profits (in $000) will vary depending upon whether passenger demand is low, medium, or high, as follows: If he feels the chances of low, medium, and high demand are 30 percent, 30 percent, and 40 percent respectively, what is his expected value of perfect information? A. $15,000 B. $61,000 C. $69,000 D. $72,000 E. $87,000
Q:
The new owner of a beauty shop is trying to decide whether to hire one, two, or three beauticians. She estimates that profits next year (in thousands of dollars) will vary with demand for her services, and she has estimated demand in three categories, low, medium, and high. If she feels the chances of low, medium, and high demand are 50 percent, 20 percent, and 30 percent respectively, what is her expected value of perfect information? A. $54,000 B. $65,000 C. $70,000 D. $80,000 E. $135,000
Q:
Consider the following decision scenario: *PV for profits ($000) With equally likely states of nature, the alternative that has the largest expected monetary value is: A. A. B. B. C. C. D. D. E. E.
Q:
Consider the following decision scenario: *PV for profits ($000) The minimax regret strategy would be: A. A. B. B. C. C. D. D. E. E.
Q:
Consider the following decision scenario: *PV for profits ($000) The maximin strategy would be: A. A. B. B. C. C. D. D. E. E.
Q:
Consider the following decision scenario: *PV for profits ($000) The maximax strategy would be: A. A. B. B. C. C. D. D. E. E.
Q:
Consider the following decision scenario: *PV for profits ($000) If yes and no are equally likely, which alternative has the largest expected monetary value? A. small. B. medium. C. med.-large. D. large. E. ex-large.
Q:
Consider the following decision scenario: *PV for profits ($000) If P(high) is .60, the choice for maximum expected value would be: A. buy. B. lease. C. rent. D. high. E. low.
Q:
The term "sensitivity analysis" is most closely associated with:
A. maximax.
B. maximin.
C. decision making under risk.
D. minimax regret.
E. Laplace criterion.
Q:
If the minimum expected regret is computed, it indicates to a decision maker the expected:
A. value of perfect information.
B. payoff under certainty.
C. monetary value.
D. payoff under risk.
E. risk-seeking.
Q:
The difference between expected payoff under certainty and expected payoff under risk is the expected:
A. monetary value.
B. value of perfect information.
C. net present value.
D. rate of return.
E. profit.
Q:
A decision tree is:
A. an algebraic representation of alternatives.
B. a behavioral representation of alternatives.
C. a matrix representation of alternatives.
D. a schematic representation of alternatives.
E. limited to a maximum of 12 branches.
Q:
The expected monetary value criterion (EMV) is the decision-making approach used with the decision environment of:
A. certainty.
B. risk.
C. uncertainty.
D. aversion.
E. neutrality.
Q:
The term "opportunity loss or regret" is most closely associated with:
A. minimax regret.
B. maximax.
C. maximin.
D. expected monetary value.
E. Laplace.
Q:
Which one of these is not used in decision making under risk?
A. EVPI
B. EMV
C. decision trees
D. minimax regret
E. All are used for risk situations.
Q:
The maximin approach to decision making refers to:
A. minimizing the maximum return.
B. maximizing the minimum return.
C. maximizing the minimum expected value.
D. choosing the alternative with the highest payoff.
E. choosing the alternative with the minimum payoff.
Q:
Determining the average payoff for each alternative and choosing the alternative with the highest average is the approach called:
A. minimin.
B. maximin.
C. maximax.
D. minimax regret.
E. Laplace.
Q:
Determining the worst payoff for each alternative and choosing the alternative with the "best worst" is the approach called:
A. minimin.
B. maximin.
C. maximax.
D. minimax regret.
E. Laplace.
Q:
Which of the following is not an approach for decision making under uncertainty?
A. decision trees
B. maximin
C. maximax
D. minimax regret
E. Laplace
Q:
Which of the following characterizes decision making under uncertainty?
A. Decision makers must rely on probabilities in assessing outcomes.
B. The likelihood of possible future events is unknown.
C. Relevant parameters have known values.
D. Certain parameters have probabilistic outcomes.
E. Lack of knowledge about how risk-averse the decision maker is.
Q:
A tabular presentation that shows the outcome for each decision alternative under the various possible states of nature is called a:
A. payoff table.
B. feasible region.
C. Laplace table.
D. decision tree.
E. payback period matrix.
Q:
Sensitivity analysis is required because:
A. payoffs and probabilities are estimates.
B. most decisions will affect employees.
C. expected payoffs are sensitive to the time value of money.
D. it is the second step in the decision model.
E. with the passage of time, small decisions get bigger.
Q:
Testing how a problem solution reacts to changes in one or more of the model parameters is called:
A. simulation.
B. sensitivity analysis.
C. priority recognition.
D. analysis of variance.
E. decision analysis.
Q:
Which phrase best describes the term "bounded rationality"?
A. thinking a problem through clearly before acting
B. taking care not to exhaust limited resources
C. the result of departmentalized decision making
D. limits imposed on decision making by costs, time, and technology
E. the use of extremely structured steps in the decision-making process
Q:
The term "suboptimization" is best described as the:
A. result of individual departments making the best decisions for their own areas but hurting other areas.
B. limitations on decision making caused by costs and time.
C. result of failure to adhere to the steps in the decision process.
D. result of ignoring symptoms of the problem.
E. optimization on a micro level that extends to the macro level.
Q:
Option A has an expected value of $2,000, a minimum payoff of -$4,000, and a maximum payoff of $18,000. Option B has an expected value of $2,200, a minimum payoff of -$1,000, and a maximum payoff of $6,000. Option C has an expected value of $1,900, a minimum payoff of $100, and a maximum payoff of $2,000. In this situation, a risk-averse decision maker would pay __________ for his risk aversion, and a risk-seeking decision maker would pay __________ for his risk seeking.
A. $200; $300
B. $1,100; $5,000
C. $300; $200
D. $2,100; $16,000
E. $400; $200
Q:
A decision maker's worst option has an expected value of $1,000, and her best option has an expected value of $3,000. With perfect information, the expected value would be $5,000. The decision maker has discovered a firm that will, for a fee of $1,000, make her position-risk free. How much better off will her firm be if she takes this firm up on its offer?
A. $5,000
B. $4,000
C. $3,000
D. $2,000
E. $1,000
Q:
A decision maker's worst option has an expected value of $1,000, and her best option has an expected value of $3,000. With perfect information, the expected value would be $5,000. What is the expected value of perfect information?
A. $5,000
B. $4,000
C. $3,000
D. $2,000
E. $1,000
Q:
Suppose a firm has decided to break its departments down into smaller units. While this likely will help with __________ issues, it raises the possibility that poor decisions will result due to __________.
A. economies of scope; suboptimization
B. economies of scale; risk aversion
C. span of control; suboptimization
D. economies of scope; risk aversion
E. economies of scale; economies of scope
Q:
A systemic view of the organization and its operations processes can help minimize the risk of __________ leading to a poor decision.
A. bounded rationality
B. suboptimization
C. risk aversion
D. misspecification
E. complexification
Q:
In a decision-making setting, if the manager has to contend with limits on the amount of information he or she can consider, this __________ can lead to a poor decision.
A. bounded rationality
B. suboptimization
C. risk aversion
D. misspecification
E. complexification
Q:
A weakness of the maximin approach is that it loses some information.
Q:
The maximax approach is a pessimistic strategy.
Q:
The Laplace criterion treats states of nature as being equally likely.
Q:
The maximin approach involves choosing the alternative that has the "best worst" payoff.
Q:
The maximin approach involves choosing the alternative with the highest payoff.
Q:
In decision theory, states of nature refer to possible future conditions.
Q:
Among decision environments, uncertainty implies that states of nature have wide-ranging probabilities associated with them.
Q:
Among decision environments, risk implies that certain parameters have probabilistic outcomes.
Q:
Expected monetary value gives the long-run average payoff if a large number of identical decisions could be made.
Q:
The value of perfect information is inversely related to losses predicted.
Q:
The expected monetary value approach is most appropriate when the decision maker is risk neutral.
Q:
In reaching a decision, the alternative with the lowest cost should be ranked number 1.
Q:
If the average amount of time a product goes without failing decreased by some amount, that product's availability could nevertheless be maintained at previous levels by __________ its __________.
A. increasing; reliability
B. reducing; time required for repair
C. reducing; reliability
D. reducing; reparability
E. increasing; time required for repair
Q:
Suppose a given control unit fails, on average, every 12,000 hours. It takes an average of 900 hours to repair and reboot this unit. The repair/reboot procedures for this unit are being reconfigured. By how much would average repair/reboot time need to be reduced to increase availability by 5 percent (assuming the control unit's average life remains unchanged)?
A. not more than 200 hours
B. more than 200 hours but not more than 400 hours
C. more than 400 hours but not more than 600 hours
D. more than 600 hours but not more than 800 hours
E. more than 800 hours
Q:
Waygate's residential Internet modem works well but is sensitive to power-line fluctuations. On average, this product hangs up and needs resetting every 200 hours. On average about 45 minutes is needed to reset this product. What is this product's availability?
A. not in excess of .75
B. in excess of .75 but not in excess of .8
C. in excess of .8 but not in excess of .9
D. in excess of .9 but not in excess of .95
E. in excess of .95
Q:
The time between failures for an electrical appliance is exponentially distributed with a mean of 25 months. What is the probability that the next failure will not occur before 30 months have elapsed?
A. not in excess of .2
B. in excess of .2 but not in excess of .3
C. in excess of .3 but not in excess of .4
D. in excess of .4 but not in excess of .6
E. in excess of .6
Q:
An electrical appliance will not work unless component QK does. Component QK's reliability is 0.95. Every other part of the appliance is 100 percent reliable. What would the reliability of the appliance be if a backup QK were added?
A. .95
B. .9975
C. .9025
D. .9205
E. .9795
Q:
A system consists of two components, each of which must activate if the system is to activate. One component has a reliability of .99. The other has a reliability of .95. The components are independent of one another with respect to reliability. What is the overall system reliability?
A. .99
B. .95
C. .94
D. .90
E. Cannot be determined with this information.
Q:
A system consists of two components, each of which must activate if the system is to activate. One component has a reliability of .99. The other has a reliability of .95. What is the overall system reliability?
A. .99
B. .95
C. .94
D. .90
E. Cannot be determined with this information.
Q:
Product reliability involves both short-term and long-term perspectives.
Q:
Availability cannot be increased without improving the time between breakdowns.
Q:
Redundancy is often more cost-effective than increasing individual component reliability.